Back in October the New York Times had a most interesting article. You can read the article
here. After you read the article, I'm sure you will draw your own conclusions, but it puts me in mind of all the speculation out there.
What does the near-future of the book publishing industry look like? I think Amazon is overestimating its ability to monopolize the market. They have a lot of clout on the retailing market, but do they have the trust of the consumer? Traditional publishing houses have succeeded by creating brands that readers trust or follow. Yes, Amazon can sell a whole lot of product, but that is not the issue. Traditional houses create art, and art is what people want. Amazon wants to position itself as publisher, retailer, monopolizer. But if everything was grown on the same branch of monetary return, books could not be as diverse or unique.
The above mentioned article in the New York Times states rather accurately that Amazon is trying to position itself as a direct competitor to the major publishing houses. But I think they miss the point, or rather Amazon is overestimating their pull. Is it possible that the big publishers will start pulling away from Amazon, placing their high-demand products with other vendors? I'm not saying it will happen, but it only takes the right situation--just one step too far--If Amazon were cutting out, or perceived to be cutting out the major houses, that could force their hand. Anyway, I'm merely speculating...
Certainly the industry is changing, but not as much as we think. There are new faces in the market. New, smaller publishing houses meeting niche markets. The recent acquisition of Thomas Nelson sent waves through the Christian publishing industry. I myself am curious how all these changes will change the market and the industry, yet I'm eager to watch.
...Now I have to sit down and write. I have a novel to finish! (-: